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Who Will Win the NBA Award Races This Season? Expert Predictions

2025-11-05 23:05

As I sit down to analyze this season's NBA award races, I can't help but reflect on coach Chot Reyes' recent statement that's been echoing in my mind: "Kaya siyang gawin talaga [three-peat] pero yung effort and dedication ng bawat isa sa team, yun yung kailangan namin makuha." This insight about the necessity of collective effort and dedication perfectly frames what we're seeing across the league this year. Having covered the NBA for over a decade, I've learned that individual brilliance only takes you so far - it's the sustained commitment that ultimately separates contenders from pretenders in these award races.

The MVP conversation has been particularly fascinating this season. While many analysts are jumping on the Luka Dončić bandwagon, and I absolutely get why after his historic 38-point triple-double against Boston last month, my gut tells me we're heading for a Nikola Jokić three-peat. The advanced metrics support this - Jokić leads the league in Player Efficiency Rating at 32.8 and has dragged Denver to the Western Conference's second seed despite significant injuries. What impresses me most isn't just the numbers, which are staggering at 25.3 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 9.9 assists per game, but how he makes everyone around him better. I've watched every Nuggets game this season, and his basketball IQ is just on another level completely. The way he reads defenses reminds me of peak LeBron, but with a center's physique that makes him virtually unstoppable in the post.

When we shift to Rookie of the Year, this is where I'm going against the grain somewhat. Paolo Banchero has been phenomenal, no question, averaging 21.3 points and 6.8 rebounds. But I've been absolutely captivated by Jalen Williams' late-season surge. Over his last 18 games, he's putting up 19.7 points on 56% shooting while playing elite defense. The advanced stats love him too - his plus-minus of +4.3 is significantly higher than Banchero's -6.1. Watching Williams evolve has been one of my personal highlights this season. His development curve reminds me of Kawhi Leonard's early years, where you could see the potential unfolding week by week.

Defensive Player of the Year feels like Brook Lopez's to lose at this point. The Bucks' defensive system revolves around his rim protection, and the numbers are ridiculous - he's contesting 18.3 shots per game at the rim while holding opponents to 48.3% shooting, the best among high-volume defenders. I've charted his defensive positioning all season, and his ability to deter drives without fouling is masterclass material. The analytics department I consult with has him saving Milwaukee approximately 4.2 points per game through his defense alone.

Sixth Man might be the most competitive award this season. While Immanuel Quickley has the counting stats, I'm leaning toward Malcolm Brogdon because of his efficiency and impact on winning. The Celtics have been 8.7 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor, compared to just 3.1 for Quickley's Knicks. Having watched both extensively, Brogdon's ability to stabilize second units while maintaining elite shooting splits - 46.2% from the field and 41.5% from three - gives him the edge in my book.

Coach of the Year will likely go to Mike Brown for Sacramento's remarkable turnaround, and deservedly so. But I want to give a shoutout to Joe Mazzulla, who's navigated Boston through coaching turmoil while maintaining the league's best record. His adjustments in the second half of games have been particularly impressive - the Celtics lead the league in third-quarter net rating at +7.3.

As we approach the season's final stretch, what strikes me is how these individual awards ultimately reflect team success. Just as Reyes emphasized, individual talent can only take you so far without collective dedication. The players I've highlighted aren't just putting up numbers - they're elevating their teams through that daily commitment Reyes spoke about. In my experience covering this league, that's what separates good seasons from award-winning ones.