As someone who has followed international basketball prospects for over a decade, I've developed a pretty good instinct for which players will make the jump to the NBA. When it comes to Kai Sotto's chances in the 2020 NBA draft, I have to say I'm cautiously optimistic but with significant reservations. Standing at 7'2" with legitimate basketball skills, Sotto represents the kind of international prospect that NBA teams have been increasingly willing to take chances on in recent years. His height alone makes him intriguing, but what really catches my eye is his mobility for someone his size – he moves better than many players who are 6-10 or shorter.
I remember watching his development closely, particularly during his time in the US preparing for the draft. The numbers tell part of the story – in his final season before declaring, he averaged around 12 points and 8 rebounds per game against decent competition. Those aren't eye-popping stats, but they don't tell the whole story either. What impressed me more was his basketball IQ and passing ability for a big man. He demonstrated court vision that you don't often see in players his height, and that's exactly the kind of skill that translates well to the modern NBA game.
The reference to Pablo shifting her team's focus to working with existing pieces rather than searching for missing components resonates deeply with me when considering Sotto's situation. NBA teams are increasingly adopting this philosophy in their draft approach – they're looking at what a player can do right now and how they can develop those existing skills rather than trying to mold them into something they're not. For Sotto, this means teams will likely focus on his unique combination of size and skill rather than trying to turn him into a traditional back-to-the-basket center. His ability to handle the ball and shoot from outside, while still developing, presents an intriguing package that fits perfectly with today's positionless basketball trends.
That said, I have serious concerns about his physical readiness for the NBA. At 218 pounds during the combine measurements, he simply doesn't have the strength to battle with established NBA big men. I've seen too many skilled international big men struggle because they couldn't handle the physicality of the league. The good news is that strength is one of the easier attributes to develop with proper nutrition and training, but it does take time – something NBA teams aren't always willing to provide to second-round picks.
From my conversations with scouts and team executives, the consensus seems to be that Sotto is likely a second-round prospect rather than someone who will hear his name called in the first round. The 2020 draft class had several big men with more proven track records against higher-level competition, which pushed Sotto further down most teams' boards. Still, I believe there's a 65-70% chance he gets selected somewhere in the second round, likely by a team with multiple picks that can afford to take a developmental project.
What really works in Sotto's favor, in my opinion, is the success of other international big men who entered the league with similar question marks. Players like Kristaps Porziņģis and more recently Aleksej Pokuševski have shown that teams are willing to be patient with unique international prospects. The key difference, of course, is that those players had more extensive professional experience against higher-level competition before entering the draft. Sotto's path through various development programs rather than established professional leagues makes his projection more challenging.
Looking back at similar prospects from previous drafts, I'd estimate Sotto's chances of actually sticking in the NBA long-term at around 40%. The reality is that most second-round picks don't become rotation players, and the adjustment for international players is particularly challenging. Still, I'd rather see a team take a chance on someone with Sotto's unique attributes than on a more conventional player with lower upside. His development will require patience and the right organizational fit, but the potential reward makes him worth the risk in the second round. The team that drafts him needs to embrace the philosophy of working with what he brings to the table rather than trying to fit him into a predefined box – exactly the approach that Pablo described in shifting her team's focus to their existing pieces.