As someone who has followed international basketball prospects for over a decade, I've seen countless young talents chase the NBA dream. When it comes to Kai Sotto's 2020 draft prospects, I've got to be honest - the numbers don't look promising, and here's why I think that's actually okay for his development. Remember when former PVL MVP Pablo shifted her team's focus to working with available pieces rather than chasing unavailable talent? That exact philosophy applies perfectly to Sotto's situation right now.
Looking at the hard data, only 60 players get drafted each year, with typically just 2-3 international prospects making the cut without college experience. Sotto's stats from the NBA G League Ignite showed flashes - he averaged roughly 7.8 points and 6.4 rebounds in 15 games - but those numbers simply don't stack up against established college big men. I've watched enough draft prospects to know when someone needs more seasoning, and Sotto's defensive positioning and physical development need at least another year, maybe two, before he's truly NBA-ready. The reality is, teams drafting in the second round want either immediate contributors or high-upside projects, and at 7'2" with decent mobility, Sotto falls somewhere in between - not quite ready to contribute, but not quite raw enough to be a tantalizing project.
What really strikes me about Sotto's journey is how it mirrors that PVL philosophy I mentioned earlier. Instead of desperately chasing a draft spot that wasn't there, he's been smart about developing the tools he already possesses. I've always believed that international players benefit tremendously from additional professional experience overseas before making the NBA leap. Look at players like Domantas Sabonis - he spent crucial development years in Europe before becoming an All-Star. Sotto's decision to continue playing professionally in Australia and Japan, rather than clinging to the draft dream, shows remarkable maturity. He's building his game with the pieces available to him right now, rather than fixating on what isn't there.
The basketball landscape has changed dramatically in recent years, and I'm convinced the traditional draft route isn't the only path to the NBA anymore. We're seeing more players like Rui Hachimura develop through international systems before making the jump. Sotto's continued development in professional leagues gives him something most draft prospects lack: meaningful game experience against grown men. At just 21 years old, he's already logged significant minutes in multiple professional leagues, and that experience is worth its weight in gold. I'd much rather see him playing 25 minutes per game in Japan's B.League than riding the bench in the NBA or dominating in the G League.
My personal take? Sotto's future is brighter because he didn't get drafted in 2020. The pressure of being a draft pick can sometimes hinder development, whereas now he can focus purely on improving his game. I've spoken with several NBA scouts who believe his ceiling remains high - they project him as a potential rotation big man if he continues developing at his current pace. The key areas he needs to work on are clear: adding strength to his frame (he's currently about 30 pounds lighter than the average NBA center) and improving his three-point consistency (he shot around 28% from deep last season). These are fixable issues with dedicated coaching and time.
The beautiful thing about basketball development is that it's not linear. Some players bloom later than others, and Sotto's unique path might ultimately serve him better. Rather than rushing his development to meet arbitrary draft timelines, he's building sustainable skills that will translate when he eventually makes the jump. I'm optimistic we'll see him in the NBA within the next 2-3 years, better prepared and more complete than if he had been drafted prematurely. Sometimes the longer road leads to a better destination, and in Sotto's case, I believe that's exactly what's happening.