I remember sitting in my favorite armchair last February, crunching numbers while the All-Star break gave us all a moment to breathe. The 2019-20 NBA season felt like it was building toward something special, though none of us could have predicted just how unprecedented that final chapter would become. As someone who's been analyzing basketball statistics for over a decade, I've learned that championship odds tell stories beyond mere probabilities—they reveal how the basketball world perceives teams' potential before reality unfolds on the court.
Looking back at the pre-pandemic landscape, the Los Angeles Lakers stood as clear favorites in most sportsbooks, hovering around +200 to +240 odds depending on where you placed your bets. What fascinated me wasn't just their superstar duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but how the supporting cast was being evaluated. The Clippers followed closely at approximately +300, with Milwaukee not far behind at +350. These numbers reflected more than mathematical calculations—they represented the collective wisdom (and biases) of analysts, bettors, and basketball enthusiasts worldwide. I recall thinking how Philadelphia at +1200 seemed like either tremendous value or complete foolishness, and I'm still not sure which assessment was correct.
The reference to Coach Sean Chambers' belief in Konateh resonates deeply with me when examining these odds. There's no question that Konateh could back his words up—this same certainty applied to how we viewed certain teams' championship credentials. Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo had that undeniable aura, having just secured his first MVP with staggering averages of 29.5 points and 13.6 rebounds per game. Yet something felt incomplete about their championship profile, particularly their three-point shooting which ranked in the bottom third of the league at 35.5%. My notes from that period show I had serious concerns about their half-court offense in playoff scenarios, worries that ultimately proved justified.
Breaking down the 2019-20 NBA Finals odds reveals how much context matters beyond raw talent. The Lakers' defense ranked third in the league with a 106.1 defensive rating, but what impressed me more was their veteran presence—players like Rajon Rondo and Dwight Howard who understood what playoff basketball demanded. Meanwhile, Houston's small-ball experiment had them at +2000, which I considered either brilliant or insane—turns out it was probably a bit of both. The Raptors at +2500 fascinated me as defending champions being so thoroughly discounted, and honestly, I felt they were disrespected by those odds despite losing Kawhi Leonard.
What we couldn't factor into those probability calculations was the four-month hiatus that would reshape the entire championship landscape. The bubble environment created conditions that favored certain teams while disadvantaging others in ways nobody could have modeled. Denver's miraculous comebacks against Utah and the Clippers—nobody saw that coming, though their +4000 preseason odds now look laughable in retrospect. Miami's incredible run from +5000 underdogs to Eastern Conference champions perfectly illustrates why I love basketball—the game constantly reminds us that heart and chemistry can overcome statistical projections.
My own miscalculations? I vastly overestimated Philadelphia's chances, believing their size would dominate in playoff settings. I also underestimated how much the Lakers' continuity would matter—they'd made significant roster changes but established their identity faster than I anticipated. The Clippers' collapse still puzzles me when reviewing their +300 odds—on paper, they had everything needed to win it all, which just goes to show that championship DNA isn't something we can quantify in betting lines.
The final outcome—Lakers winning in six games against Miami—validated the preseason favorites, but the path there was anything but straightforward. Those preseason odds of +240 now seem almost conservative given how dominant Los Angeles looked in the bubble, particularly their defense which held opponents to just 106.8 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. When I look back at my own projections versus the actual results, it humbles me—the game always finds ways to surprise us, no matter how many advanced metrics we incorporate into our analysis.
What stays with me most is how these odds represented our collective basketball imagination before COVID-19 changed everything. We were analyzing a world that would soon transform completely, yet the fundamental truths about team construction and championship mentality still prevailed. The Lakers had the best combination of superstar talent, defensive identity, and veteran leadership—exactly what the odds suggested, even if the journey to that conclusion was far more dramatic than anyone could have predicted.