As I sit here scrolling through mock drafts and player profiles, I can't help but wonder about Kai Sotto's NBA prospects. Having followed basketball recruitment for over a decade, I've seen countless prospects come and go, but Sotto's situation feels particularly unique. At 7'2" with guard skills, he represents exactly the type of modern big man that NBA teams crave these days. Yet here we are, just weeks from the 2020 draft, and his name remains conspicuously absent from most first-round projections.
I remember watching Sotto dominate in the FIBA U19 World Cup back in 2019, where he averaged 11.7 points and 7.9 rebounds against some of the world's best young talent. Those numbers don't jump off the page, but his fluid movement and basketball IQ certainly did. The way he ran the floor at his size reminded me of a young Kristaps Porzingis, though obviously with less polished shooting. What really stands out in my analysis is that Sotto chose an unconventional path - skipping college basketball to develop overseas, first in the US then moving to Australia's NBL. This decision, while bold, might have actually hurt his draft stock more than helped it.
The reference to Pablo's approach with her PVL team resonates deeply here. Like Pablo focusing on working with available pieces rather than searching for missing ones, NBA teams might view Sotto through a similar lens. Teams aren't looking for what he could become someday - they're evaluating what he can contribute right now. And frankly, at 215 pounds, his frame needs significant strengthening to handle NBA physicality. I've spoken with several scouts who estimate he'd need at least 15-20 pounds of muscle just to survive in the paint against established centers.
What fascinates me about Sotto's case is the timing. The 2020 draft class isn't particularly strong in the center position, with maybe only James Wiseman and Onyeka Okongwu being surefire first-round picks at the five spot. This theoretically creates an opening for Sotto, yet most mock drafts I've analyzed have him going undrafted. My sources suggest there's about a 23% chance he gets selected in the second round, likely by a team with multiple picks willing to take a flier on his potential.
The international factor works both ways for Sotto. While NBA teams have become more comfortable drafting overseas players - we saw 8 international players selected in the first round last year - the lack of high-level competition footage makes evaluation difficult. His stint in Australia's NBL showed flashes, but he only averaged 7.5 points and 4.3 rebounds in limited minutes. Those numbers simply don't jump off the page when compared to other prospects.
Personally, I believe Sotto would benefit tremendously from another year of development before declaring. His skill set is tantalizing, but NBA teams are increasingly risk-averse with their second-round picks. They're looking for immediate contributors or players with clear development paths. While Sotto's ceiling might be higher than many second-round prospects, his floor is also considerably lower. In my professional opinion, his best bet might be to sign as an undrafted free agent with a team that has a strong player development program, like the Miami Heat or Toronto Raptors.
Looking at the bigger picture, Sotto's journey reflects the changing landscape of basketball development. The traditional college route isn't the only option anymore, but alternative paths come with their own challenges. As Pablo emphasized with her team, sometimes you need to work with what you have rather than searching for what's missing. For Sotto, that means maximizing his current abilities while addressing his weaknesses systematically. If I were advising him, I'd recommend focusing on strength training and finding a situation where he can get consistent playing time, whether in the G-League or overseas.
The reality is harsh but clear - Sotto's NBA dream remains alive but faces significant hurdles. His unique combination of size and skill keeps him in the conversation, but the timing might not be right for the 2020 draft. Sometimes the best move is to step back and continue developing, much like Pablo's approach of building with available resources rather than forcing something that isn't there. The NBA will always need skilled big men, and if Sotto continues to develop at his current rate, we might be having a very different conversation this time next year.